France, by comparison, is relatively powerless, but it is not ready to cede the Balkans to German domination. Therefore it must rely on its historical linkages and clever diplomacy to maintain power. Paris will look to Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Romania to help counterbalance German ambitions.
As a result, Germany and France are likely to be on the opposite sides of any number of regional policy issues.
Other powers are at work here as well. Though it is far enough removed in geographic terms to get too involved in the Balkans, Britain likely will continue to serve as the U.S. proxy in the region. Washington's goals align more closely with those of Germany than of France, and so will London's.
Though Russia has tight historical connections to Serbia, it has lost sway in the Balkans over the last half-decade. Not only is it no longer in a position to team up with France, it is much more concerned about developing closer economic ties to Europe through Germany. Yugoslavia is simply not a high geopolitical priority for Russia anymore.
Turkey, meanwhile, perpetually seeks to make itself indispensable to Europe. It has cultural and religious connections with Albania and Bosnia that it may use as leverage to become more involved in European policy. Turkey will become an increasingly important player in the Balkans.
A Balkan tug-of-war between France and Germany could lead to even greater regional instability, with ethnic groups seeking to take advantage of the divide. History has too clearly demonstrated the damage that a small spark in the Balkan tinderbox can do. However, it may take another real crisis before European leaders truly begin to act in concert in this region.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found at: http://www.stratfor.com. This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.
As a result, Germany and France are likely to be on the opposite sides of any number of regional policy issues.
Other powers are at work here as well. Though it is far enough removed in geographic terms to get too involved in the Balkans, Britain likely will continue to serve as the U.S. proxy in the region. Washington's goals align more closely with those of Germany than of France, and so will London's.
Though Russia has tight historical connections to Serbia, it has lost sway in the Balkans over the last half-decade. Not only is it no longer in a position to team up with France, it is much more concerned about developing closer economic ties to Europe through Germany. Yugoslavia is simply not a high geopolitical priority for Russia anymore.
Turkey, meanwhile, perpetually seeks to make itself indispensable to Europe. It has cultural and religious connections with Albania and Bosnia that it may use as leverage to become more involved in European policy. Turkey will become an increasingly important player in the Balkans.
A Balkan tug-of-war between France and Germany could lead to even greater regional instability, with ethnic groups seeking to take advantage of the divide. History has too clearly demonstrated the damage that a small spark in the Balkan tinderbox can do. However, it may take another real crisis before European leaders truly begin to act in concert in this region.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found at: http://www.stratfor.com. This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.