Therefore, not only must they act; they must act publicly. This is why the arrests of the al Qaeda suspects that occurred months ago have been announced now, and it is safe to assume that further arrests that have not yet been announced are being made.
At the same time, the Saudis can't just "cooperate." For every action, there will be a local reaction. Hence, linked with the announcement of the al Qaeda arrests is the announcement of the release of Saudis who fought in Afghanistan. For the U.S. government, a much more important al Qaeda cell has been taken down publicly while a much less critical group of operatives have been released to appease domestic critics and assure them that the kingdom remains independent.
This may achieve the balance between the needs of the Saudis and the United States, but if the Egyptians create problems for the Saudis with their investigation into al Qaeda, then some sort of conflict is sure to erupt between Riyadh and Cairo. Saudi Arabia is increasing contact with Sudan - Sudanese President Omar Bashir traveled to the country June 17 - which the Saudis could possibly use as a proxy against Egypt.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.
At the same time, the Saudis can't just "cooperate." For every action, there will be a local reaction. Hence, linked with the announcement of the al Qaeda arrests is the announcement of the release of Saudis who fought in Afghanistan. For the U.S. government, a much more important al Qaeda cell has been taken down publicly while a much less critical group of operatives have been released to appease domestic critics and assure them that the kingdom remains independent.
This may achieve the balance between the needs of the Saudis and the United States, but if the Egyptians create problems for the Saudis with their investigation into al Qaeda, then some sort of conflict is sure to erupt between Riyadh and Cairo. Saudi Arabia is increasing contact with Sudan - Sudanese President Omar Bashir traveled to the country June 17 - which the Saudis could possibly use as a proxy against Egypt.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.