Even if President Eduardo Duhalde remains in office until presidential elections in September 2003 - which is doubtful, given the imminent collapse of the country's financial system -- Argentina's next government could distance the country economically and politically from the United States. In fact, many Latin Americans perceive the IMF's refusal so far to bail out Argentina as proof that the Bush administration is not as interested in the region as it professes to be.
In Colombia, the likely election of Uribe Velez would automatically raise the country's political conflict to a higher, more violent level. The Colombian government already has accumulated significant evidence that the FARC is trying to launch an urban terror offensive involving bombs and assassinations in major cities like Bogota, Cali and Medellin. The FARC's urban offensive, and the counteroffensive by the paramilitary United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), could engulf Colombia's cities before Uribe Velez's inauguration on Aug. 7.
Given the persistent allegations that Uribe Velez has ties to the AUC and drug traffickers, plus the fact that about three-dozen recently elected Colombian congressmen have been linked to the AUC by Colombian government intelligence sources, the Bush administration likely will have difficulty persuading the U.S. Congress to expand military aid to that country.
In fact, Democratic congressional leaders likely will make the Bush administration's Colombia policy another bone of contention in the mid-term elections, possibly using Dodd's hearings on Venezuela to spin out Colombia as a parallel issue. This would hinder the administration's efforts to expand U.S. military aid to Colombia and might even weaken congressional support for the counter-drug military assistance, already approved under Plan Colombia, after current President Andres Pastrana's term in office comes to an end in August.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found at http://www.stratfor.com in our LINKS section.
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher STRATFOR.com.
In Colombia, the likely election of Uribe Velez would automatically raise the country's political conflict to a higher, more violent level. The Colombian government already has accumulated significant evidence that the FARC is trying to launch an urban terror offensive involving bombs and assassinations in major cities like Bogota, Cali and Medellin. The FARC's urban offensive, and the counteroffensive by the paramilitary United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), could engulf Colombia's cities before Uribe Velez's inauguration on Aug. 7.
Given the persistent allegations that Uribe Velez has ties to the AUC and drug traffickers, plus the fact that about three-dozen recently elected Colombian congressmen have been linked to the AUC by Colombian government intelligence sources, the Bush administration likely will have difficulty persuading the U.S. Congress to expand military aid to that country.
In fact, Democratic congressional leaders likely will make the Bush administration's Colombia policy another bone of contention in the mid-term elections, possibly using Dodd's hearings on Venezuela to spin out Colombia as a parallel issue. This would hinder the administration's efforts to expand U.S. military aid to Colombia and might even weaken congressional support for the counter-drug military assistance, already approved under Plan Colombia, after current President Andres Pastrana's term in office comes to an end in August.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found at http://www.stratfor.com in our LINKS section.
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher STRATFOR.com.