The German government is now hoping that the Security Council will not be presented with a new resolution explicitly endorsing a U.S. military strike, because such a resolution would confront it with an insoluble dilemma. If the Germans voted in favour, there would be no way for Schröder and Fischer to continue to mask the breach of their election promises, and the governing coalition could very well break apart. However, if they abstained or voted against, they would be threatened with international isolation.

It is already becoming apparent that Russia, China and France — all of which, as permanent members of the Security Council, have veto powers — will support such a resolution, calculating that they cannot, in any event, prevent the U.S. and Britain from going to war.

French President Jacques Chirac, who had repeatedly declared his preference for a peaceful solution, took a U-turn after the new year. He publicly confirmed for the first time that France would participate militarily in a war against Iraq.

At a New Year’s reception for the chiefs of staff, he called on them to get ready for “all eventualities”. He noted “with regret” that the number of regions where the French army was active might increase. While he did not mention Iraq by name, nobody was in doubt about the meaning of his words. On the same day he stated in front of the diplomatic corps that, in the event of a decision by the U.N., France would meet “its responsibility to the international community”.