Zambada can also call on corrupt local and state police for protection and help in securing his would-be territory against rivals. U.S. law enforcement officials quoted in the New York Times say Zambada's well-compensated friends within the state police protected him from the apparent assassination attempt by Arellano Felix. Zambada's group is also thought to be behind the killing of Tijuana police Chief Alfredo de la Torre Marquez two years ago, and it has since probably secured covert police support in the city.
The desire to co-opt the Tijuana cartel's network of partners,
The desire to co-opt the Tijuana cartel's network of partners,
bodyguards, gunmen, money launderers and general operatives could motivate Zambada to move aggressively -- but absorbing the cartel may not be so easy, despite its weakened state.
The Tijuana cartel could reconstitute around other family members, most likely Eduardo Arellano Felix. The eldest brother, Francisco Rafael Arellano Felix, also could re-emerge once he completes a 10-year prison term next year. Also, one of the group's chief lieutenants, Amado Cruz Anguiano -- a former policeman and alleged money launderer -- is scheduled to be released from prison this year.
The Tijuana cartel could reconstitute around other family members, most likely Eduardo Arellano Felix. The eldest brother, Francisco Rafael Arellano Felix, also could re-emerge once he completes a 10-year prison term next year. Also, one of the group's chief lieutenants, Amado Cruz Anguiano -- a former policeman and alleged money launderer -- is scheduled to be released from prison this year.
Finally, the Tijuana cartel has developed strong connections with Russian, Colombian and Peruvian criminal enterprises that give it added value.
Zambada may seek to absorb Tijuana and its network of allies -- including these same foreign players -- to strengthen his own organization. The Russians and South Americans will have no trouble shifting their loyalties, as long as they are attached to a strong player. And even though Zambada is an archrival of the Arellano Felix brothers, the weakened cartel may see this as its best chance to survive other challenges.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found at: http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.
Zambada may seek to absorb Tijuana and its network of allies -- including these same foreign players -- to strengthen his own organization. The Russians and South Americans will have no trouble shifting their loyalties, as long as they are attached to a strong player. And even though Zambada is an archrival of the Arellano Felix brothers, the weakened cartel may see this as its best chance to survive other challenges.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found at: http://www.stratfor.com .
This article is reprinted with permission from the publisher.