The Ferghana's centrality to IMU operations, and the group's connections with al Qaeda, could very well lead the U.S. military to focus more attention on the valley as the war on terrorism spreads beyond Afghanistan. Considering Tashkent's eagerness to indulge Washington's anti-al Qaeda campaign, it would almost certainly pitch in its own forces and intelligence.

Aside from the wide array of IMU targets in Uzbekistan, the group is also active in the Ferghana cities of Osh and Jalalabad in Kyrgyzstan and Khujand in Tajikistan. Uzbekistan maintains a hefty intelligence presence in all three locations.

Another target is the IMU training base at Tavildera, Tajikistan. Since Tavildera is further afield than the Ferghana targets, striking it would largely be the U.S. military's responsibility.

But operations in the Ferghana, with Uzbek troops providing the bulk of the forces, would not be the hit-and-leave operations that Washington might envision. Karimov is a power-hungry dictator with an axe to grind; he also wants to be Central Asia's regional hegemon, and sees a long-term U.S. presence as a gateway to that goal.

The three Ferghana cities are not only IMU operating locations; they are also the largest cities in the valley that Uzbekistan does not already control. Seizing them outright would not only lessen the Islamic threat, it would extend Karimov's control over the population and infrastructure of the valley. Khujand is particularly key in this regard, as it lies astride the valley's primary road, rail and natural gas connections that tie Uzbekistan to the rest of the world.