But there's a more urgent change Turkey will have to make. According to E.U. High Representative, Javier Solana, "If it is to take its place in Europe, Turkey must also play a role in the European defense project." And that's where things get tricky. The Western military industrial complex is basically split in two distinct groups: the Franco-German dominated European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co (EADS), and the U.S.-dominated "Big Six" (including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, among others). This distinction is important given that the sides tend to compete in important global conflicts (the U.S. pumping weapons into Pakistan while the French arm India, for example). So if the U.S. decides to attack Iraq (let alone additional countries after that) against the wishes of other NATO partners, for example, could the ensuing rift place Turkey literally between Iraq and a hard place?

Another crucial factor is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) project, http://www.cacianalyst.org/Feb_14_2001/President_Bush_and_Caspian_Oil.htm
a pipeline which would partially run through Turkey, thereby providing Ankara with revenue from millions in annual transit fees. Critical to the Bush administration, BTC would help a handful of U.S. companies seize control over the massive Caspian oil reserves, sidestepping the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the way. Energy analysts say the BTC project is unworkable, and environmentalists warn of potential catastrophic risks.