There has been no global assessment of the number likely to be displaced by a rise in sea level of half a meter to one meter, both possible in the foreseeable future. Following such a rise, millions would be displaced in countries across the developing world such as Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt and Guyana. At least five island nations would become uninhabitable. These include the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, which, frustrated by international inaction, are seeking legal assistance to take the world's biggest polluters to court.

There has also been no global assessment of the likely costs to poor countries incurred by the need to adapt to global warming. Being better prepared can make a huge difference. Two million lives were saved in the 1990s in Bangladesh through coordinated evacuations. But it is no longer sufficient to leave disaster management to the specialists. Global warming means a whole new way of thinking is necessary.

by Andrew Simms

Andrew Simms is policy director of the New Economics Foundation and co-author of the World Disasters Report 2002, published by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002
Published on Wednesday, June 19, 2002 in the Guardian of London

Reprinted with permission of the author.