Democratic and Republican sources in Congress tell STRATFOR that Dodd's hearings will have two main objectives: to discredit Otto Reich, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, and to create a wedge issue that Democrats can leverage to their advantage in November's mid-term congressional elections. Since the rebounding U.S. economy has deprived Democrats of an effective campaign issue, the Bush administration's foreign policy will come under partisan congressional fire.
The administration's supporters in Congress likely will counterattack by waving the red flag on national security concerns in Latin America, to which Dodd is particularly vulnerable. However, the hearings on Venezuela could distract the Bush administration's Latin America policy team from the multiple crises requiring their close attention. Moreover, any increase in partisan bickering over Latin America policy ahead of mid-term elections could hinder the Bush administration's efforts to manage the economic and political crises consuming Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela simultaneously.
Additionally, if Uribe Velez is elected president of Colombia May 26 -- as is probable, given his commanding lead over Liberal Party rival Horacio Serpa -- Democratic support for expanded U.S. military aid to Colombia likely will weaken or be withdrawn altogether. Unless Uribe Velez can prove convincingly that he has never had ties either to paramilitaries or drug traffickers, Dodd and other Democratic leaders can be expected to resist Bush administration attempts to increase U.S. military aid to Colombia -- especially between now and November.
The administration's supporters in Congress likely will counterattack by waving the red flag on national security concerns in Latin America, to which Dodd is particularly vulnerable. However, the hearings on Venezuela could distract the Bush administration's Latin America policy team from the multiple crises requiring their close attention. Moreover, any increase in partisan bickering over Latin America policy ahead of mid-term elections could hinder the Bush administration's efforts to manage the economic and political crises consuming Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela simultaneously.
Additionally, if Uribe Velez is elected president of Colombia May 26 -- as is probable, given his commanding lead over Liberal Party rival Horacio Serpa -- Democratic support for expanded U.S. military aid to Colombia likely will weaken or be withdrawn altogether. Unless Uribe Velez can prove convincingly that he has never had ties either to paramilitaries or drug traffickers, Dodd and other Democratic leaders can be expected to resist Bush administration attempts to increase U.S. military aid to Colombia -- especially between now and November.