Observing that the U.S. force deployment in the north is smaller than that to the south, Baghdad might begin moving the main bulk of its forces south of Baghdad - astride the roads leading up from Kuwait - in order to block troops' southern approach.

If the Hurriyet report is true and the Iraqi military starts to redeploy to the south of Baghdad, pressure for the United States to launch an air war immediately will be intense.

The United States could gain an advantage by taking to the air now, trapping the moving Iraqi units on the roads during the march rather than waiting until Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has forces in place and fighting pitched battles as allied troops try to move in from Kuwait.

STRATFOR

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