Even with Germany at the helm, a lack of European unity could tempt some ethnic groups to exploit policy divisions, hoping to destabilize the region again to their advantage. This could put Europe's two main powers, France and Germany, directly at odds -- hardly a recipe for unity.
Historically, the Balkans have been a bellwether for European security issues. That has not changed: Today, the region is both an example of the need for greater security cooperation in Europe and evidence of the national priorities that make such cooperation so difficult.
The current struggle for influence over the region is rooted in history. Germany has always been closer to Croatia and Slovenia, and former Chancellor Helmut Kohl's early recognition of their break from Yugoslavia helped to precipitate the Balkan wars of the 1990s. France has historically been aligned with the Serbs and the region's orthodox Slavs.
This history makes the allegation of a French officer leaking capture plans to the Bosnian Serbs more believable than would otherwise be the case. This does not mean the accusation is true -- or even if it is, that the officer acted with either the knowledge or complicity of French intelligence or government officials.
Historically, the Balkans have been a bellwether for European security issues. That has not changed: Today, the region is both an example of the need for greater security cooperation in Europe and evidence of the national priorities that make such cooperation so difficult.
The current struggle for influence over the region is rooted in history. Germany has always been closer to Croatia and Slovenia, and former Chancellor Helmut Kohl's early recognition of their break from Yugoslavia helped to precipitate the Balkan wars of the 1990s. France has historically been aligned with the Serbs and the region's orthodox Slavs.
This history makes the allegation of a French officer leaking capture plans to the Bosnian Serbs more believable than would otherwise be the case. This does not mean the accusation is true -- or even if it is, that the officer acted with either the knowledge or complicity of French intelligence or government officials.