Prior to Bush's recent announcement, there was very little movement toward free trade between Washington and Rabat. A Trade and Investment Framework Agreement signed in 1985 had stalled, and Morocco has spent the past decade trying to integrate itself with Europe. But the country is likely cooperating to the fullest against al Qaeda, and the message from Washington seems to be that it is willing to quickly reward those it considers friends.
Now the question is what other countries are candidates for similar treatment? Such nations would have to fulfill both political and economic criteria. They must be frontline states in the anti-terrorism campaign, which excludes much of South America and Africa. But they must also be economically palatable, meaning that they must not threaten U.S. economic interests.
Washington thus has less political incentive to negotiate free trade agreements with New Zealand or Australia, which have been working on receiving free trade status but are less significant in anti-terrorism efforts. But nor is Washington likely to put out free trade feelers toward Turkey, Egypt or Pakistan; although they are thoroughly involved in security issues, their large GDPs -- all above $50 billion a year -- and reliance on textile exports would be tough for the U.S. economy to digest quickly.
The most likely candidates for special treatment are smaller states like Morocco, such as Tunisia, Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. In Asia there is Malaysia and the Philippines while in Africa Tanzania and Kenya are possibilities. Slightly less likely, but intriguing, are Persian Gulf states that are trying to diversify their economies, such as Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .
Now the question is what other countries are candidates for similar treatment? Such nations would have to fulfill both political and economic criteria. They must be frontline states in the anti-terrorism campaign, which excludes much of South America and Africa. But they must also be economically palatable, meaning that they must not threaten U.S. economic interests.
Washington thus has less political incentive to negotiate free trade agreements with New Zealand or Australia, which have been working on receiving free trade status but are less significant in anti-terrorism efforts. But nor is Washington likely to put out free trade feelers toward Turkey, Egypt or Pakistan; although they are thoroughly involved in security issues, their large GDPs -- all above $50 billion a year -- and reliance on textile exports would be tough for the U.S. economy to digest quickly.
The most likely candidates for special treatment are smaller states like Morocco, such as Tunisia, Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. In Asia there is Malaysia and the Philippines while in Africa Tanzania and Kenya are possibilities. Slightly less likely, but intriguing, are Persian Gulf states that are trying to diversify their economies, such as Oman, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
Additional analysis from STRATFOR.com can be found in our LINKS section or at:
http://www.stratfor.com .