Davos, Multilateralism and the Crisis of the Alliance, by Dr. George Friedman, STRATFOR

"Multilateralism" was the main theme at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, recently concluded in Davos. For European states, the first half of the 20th century was a time of unprecedented savagery. In European minds, the culprit was nationalism -- or, more precisely, the unilateral pursuit of national interest. Multilateralism -- the creation of multinational institutions and a multinational mode of thought -- is the Europeans' response to their history. It has become a moral category. The United States, however, has a very different history and a very different set of fears. The United States has no historical reason for fearing its own nationalism, but it does have reason to fear inaction. The U.S. need to deal with Islamic radicalism collides with the European fear that the shattering of multilateralism once again will release the demons of nationalism.

Analysis
Stratfor was present at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, during the week of Jan. 23. The meeting was fascinating, but not necessarily for the reasons the organizers intended. At Davos, you could hear history creaking in the woodwork -- the strains of the old international systems beginning to splinter under the weight of new realities. It was a meeting in which many participants expressed substantial anger at the United States and fear of the future, particularly over the coming war with Iraq. Underlying all of this, however, was the belief that ultimately there was nothing broken that could not be repaired.