Israel Rafalovich: Challenges Facing the Galileo

Brussels

The European Union could be forced to cut back on the amount of satellites forming its flagship 4.5-billion Euro Galileo navigation system because of financial constraints, according to European Union experts. The total investment until now, according to Mr. Jacques Barot, EU Commissioner for Transport, is 1.5-billion Euros.

Although it is struggling to keep its timetable, the European Union hopes to start operating Galileo in 2011.

Europe's Galileo satellite navigation system has already run more than 400-million Euro over budget in its first phase, said European Commission officials. The over run was due mainly to miscalculations for the costs of building and launching two test satellites. The spending brings to 1.5-billion Euros the total cost of the first phase.

The Galileo project involves deploying 30 satellites, including three back-up ones - but, following the successful launch of the first test Galileo satellite in on 28 December 2005 - and it is performing well - some experts suggest that, if the current financial difficulties persist, Galileo could still work effectively on a smaller scale.

However, that could undermine the quality of the system, as some experts warn that fewer satellites might reduce the coverage and precision of the system.

"Europe wants Galileo to become the post-GPS generation, not a sub-optimal system," as one expert expressed it.

So far, financing has been secured only for the first validation phase, involving five satellites. Beyond technical demonstration, it secured the frequencies for future Galileo services. If they had not been used, the reservation it secured for them with the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) would have lapsed in June 2006.

The second test-bed satellite will fly by late 2007, to validate critical technologies.

The validation phase will continue with the production and launch of other satellites and the full development of the Earth-based component of the system, which will monitor the satellites and the quality of their signals.

Galileo will be built and used in partnership with a private consortium of eight partners from throughout the European space industry. At the same time, the European Space Agency and the European Commission are keeping the door open for possible military use.

The contract for the first four pre-operational Galileo satellite was signed between the European Space Agency (ESA) and the industry in January 2006. The concession contract should be signed during 2007.

These In-Orbit Validation (IOV) satellites are tentatively planned for launch in 2008 and will provide the first full-scale demonstration of the system's architecture.

Although Galileo seems to be on its way towards completion, there are still numerous hurdles ahead that could stall Europe's effort to build-up its own global navigation satellite system.

The European Union is hoping Galileo will not only provide an alternative to the American controlled Global Positioning System (GPS) but will also tap into growing demand for satellite communications, a world market estimated to be worth as much as 300 billion Euros, by 2020.

After its deployment phase in 2009 and 2010, Galileo will offer two advantages over the GPS system. It will offer a guarantied continuous signal and it will also offer positioning accuracy to within two meters, whereas GPS is accurate to around ten meters.

This level of precision will allow existing services to be improved and in particular, new applications to be developed.

The new system is expected to be more accurate than GPS, giving mariners, pilots, drivers and others an almost pin-point-accurate navigational tool.

Galileo would have five levels of service; the most basic would be free, like GPS. The others would be commercial and offer higher levels of accuracy, security, strength or a combination of these qualities.

Another tier of service, would be designed for basic commercial applications like truck-fleet management, while a third would be accurate enough for more sophisticated services, like assisting aircraft to land or guiding ships loaded with dangerous materials through coastal waters.

The system will also be used for Search and Rescue and would offer a unique-two way service, providing the sender of a distress signal an acknowledgement of its receipt.

Galileo, with a precursor EGNOS, is already operating for monitoring ships, running electronic road tools and protecting animals in transit.

What is more, while normal GPS is hindered by buildings, trees or anything else that blocks out the sky, "assisted" GPS works much better in urban canyons and can even operate indoors.

Fights between European states about the sharing of activities have disrupted the schedule on many occasions.

The deployment phase, 26 and more satellites to build and launch, will cost an estimated 2.3 billion Euros. One third of this amount will come from public funding and the European Commission has already planned a 700-million Euro investment. The other two-thirds will come from the future concessionaire.

The two bidding consortia, selected in June 2005, have been merged and are negotiating for a 20-year concession contract. The concession contract should be signed during 2007.

The stumbling block is a requirement for guarantees from public finances, as the return investments may take several years to materialise. In the meantime, operating and maintaining the Galileo constellation will cost about 250 million Euros a year.

European Commission support, progressively decreasing with time, is being considered.

Nevertheless, the clock is running for the future concessionaire, as it will have to order the operational Galileo satellites from the industry before the four IN-Orbit Validation (IOV) satellites are completed, in order to keep the manufacturing line in activity. This means 2007 at the least.

Meanwhile, the global navigation satellite system supervisory authority, which will own Galileo, will have to define the actual role of third parties who decide to join and contribute to the project.

The satellite navigation market has been forecast at 400 Billion Euros by 2025.

EADS is also involved in Galileo, as part of the iNavSat consortium, one of the two bidders that were finally chosen to develop Galileo, jointly. Six other leading European companies are part of the Galileo project, namely Thales - Alcatel of France, Inmarsat of the UK, Finmeccanica of Italy, along with Aena and Hispasat of Spain.

Other countries are also cooperating on Galileo; China, for example, gave 65 million Euros for the development and validation phase and another 130 million Euros for the deployment phase - but its role in the operational phase remains unclear, as is the case with India, Israel, Ukraine and South Korea.

Other agreements are being prepared with Norway and Argentina and discussions are underway with Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Brazil.

India and China are already planning to take the lead in developing the receivers and the needed software required for the pinpoint accuracy promised by Galileo.

Israel Rafalovich
U.N. OBSERVER & International Report