The Saudi Crisis, by George Friedman

Summary

Recent media reports have stated that Saudi Arabia's rulers want to end Washington's military presence in the country. Statements by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell have been intended to close the issue, but a close reading of what he actually said raises more questions than answers. The two countries have a long history, and Riyadh has proven invaluable to U.S. interests in the region. But strategic divisions following Sept. 11 have made a split increasingly likely.

Analysis

There have been deep tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia ever since Sept. 11. This development was fairly well-finessed by both sides, neither of which wanted it to become public. The tensions were there nonetheless.

On one side, the United States was creating a coalition to fight al Qaeda. Washington made cooperation in fighting the group a litmus test of friendship with the United States. On the other side in Saudi Arabia, itself a bulwark of conservative Islam, the royal family was deeply divided
over cooperation with the United States. The pressure on the relationship was substantial, and last week it broke out into the open.

It began when Michigan Sen. Carl Levin, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said the United States should begin thinking of shifting its forces out of Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region that might be more hospitable. This was followed by a story Jan. 18 in the Washington Post that cited a "senior Saudi official" as saying the United States has "overstayed its welcome" in the country.